Not The People’s Favorite

There has been a joke circulating through Egypt.

His advisers tell Mubarak that he needs to draft a farewell and goodbye speech to the people. Naturally, he asks where the people are going.

Here I am prepared to offer the world my assessment of the situation and prospects in Egypt and I get blindsided by the breaking news that Mubarak is expected to step down this evening. No he didn’t. Yes he did.

I’ve had to wait a couple of days to let the dust settle. I thought it better if it was not dated before it was posted and that it made some sense.

We are living in a time of important change. First, Tunisia, an unlikely trendsetter, led off the parade. The desire for a better life, the desire for dignity bubbled over. Sure, the concept of democracy was a driving force. Just don’t expect it to look exactly like our version or result in outcomes totally consonant with our visions.

Tunisians are not yet singing happy songs as they dance down the Yellow Brick Road. The army has called out the reserves. The interim government is far from stable. The army seems honest in their efforts to maintain an adequate stability to allow for the scheduled elections.

Ben Ali, Tunisia’s Mubarak, held power for 24 years. There will be, there must be a degree of flux when transitioning from decades of dictatorship to something closer to an expression of the people’s needs.

There is the possibility that what the demonstrators wrought will be thwarted by powerful players. There is no guarantee. That lack of a guarantee in Tunisia is an object lesson for Egyptians.

In Egypt the army has reluctantly taken control. Technically, since Mubarak was the head of the army and command now doesn’t include him it is a coup. It certainly wasn’t your typical coup.

The army intends to include the supreme court. Okay, but neither group has experience running the government day to day. The biggest question is what becomes of the Ministry of the Interior. That may be as many as a million and a half thugs, closely tied to Mubarak and his closest thugs.

When you read that 40% of Egyptians subsist on $2 a day or less, you might be inclined to describe Egypt as a poor country. Wrong. Egypt is a wealthy country containing very large numbers of poor people. The family wealth of the Mubaraks is being estimated at $5 to $85 billion. Hosni doesn’t like to share.

Maybe you’ve heard about the Muslim Brotherhood. Maybe you’ve heard of Wikileaks. Some of those leaked documents show that out analysts in Egypt consider them to be a factor that we can afford to essentially ignore. If you hear anyone speaking of the danger they represent, you may rest assured that either they are trying to scare you for their own reasons or have been gulled into believing it by one of the former.

I expect matters to resolve themselves in a relatively stable process. Given that the army is in charge and its close ties to the US military, the results should be something we will find acceptable. That doesn’t mean we get our way completely. But, that country belongs to Egyptians and should reflect their aims.

Egypt represents one-fourth of all Arabs. Much of the area must adapt itself to whatever results. That adjustment may include regime change or, at least instability, in other countries in that area. Let’s take a peek.

Given that the eventual results in Tunisia and Egypt may not be totally to our liking, however positive they look now, there is room for very different results in any countries that make be infected by this democracy/freedom bug.

Everyone expects Yemen to be next on the list. Their dictator has moved to defuse the situation somewhat by announcing he will step down in due time. After all, he’s only held office since 1978. That may or may not satisfy the people.

We tend to think of Iraq and Afghanistan as theaters of war for us. Yemen occupies a substantial portion of our special forces. While Afghanistan may harbor as many as a hundred al-Qaeda, Yemen hosts thousands. While they live in Saudi Arabia, Yemen is the home of the bin Laden family.

The events in Tunisia and Egypt have seen an alternative to al-Qaeda’s favored scenario. Any instability, actually increased instability, is somewhat less than likely to appear as a clone of its predecessors.

Who else may be standing in line? Jordan? The king there claims to be a descendant of Mohammad. However, he rules a country composed of 85% Palestinians. They are not exactly content with their present situation. Full disclosure requires me to remind you that my late 2^nd wife was Palestinian. The US will do everything it can to keep that country from leaving our orbit.

The king did get rid of his entire cabinet. I guess that’s supposed to cure all ills.

Americans see a picture of Saudi Arabia that is much prettier than reality. Periodic outbreaks of unrest in that country result in such actions as putting a town in “medical” quarantine. While there is more unrest than we see, the wealth has been spread around far more than in Egypt.

While we think of Saudi Arabia as being an ally, we would do well to remember that 15 0f the 19 hijackers on 9-11 were from Saudi Arabia. That government is also the primary funder of the Wahhabi sect. It is considered the most regressive, dangerous version of Islam. It operates an untold number of schools, both in Saudi Arabia and across the Arab world.

A regime change there seems less likely than but, then again, so did it seem in Tunisia and Egypt.

Syria is the acknowledged master of internal security. I doubt any intelligence analyst expects Bashar al-Assad to succumb. He learned well at his daddy’s knee. The late Hafez al-Assad seemed not to have any weaknesses in the area of maintaining order.

Syria effectively controls Lebanon. No significant changes are expected there. They also have major influence among Palestinians. Unless Israel returns the Golan Heights to Syria, there is no possibility of rapprochement. That is unlikely, as it has some military value. My opinion is that the military value in any likely war is overrated. Tank commanders would prefer the advantages it offers but they are only one military element.

The Maghreb

This is the term commonly referring to Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Mauritania, and the disputed territory of Western Sahara. Tunisia, of course, led this parade. The others in this group are feeling the pressure. Algeria has already cut off the Internet. They may not all fall but all will feel the effects of what has already happened in their midst and in Egypt.

Iraq will cheer on the Egyptians and any that follow. They are rid of Sadam. Events may have some effect on how their leadership regards the potential of the people and somewhat modify their plans.

The Iranian people may be taking some hope from what is happening. Its leadership is not. Both are undoubtedly trying to find what lessons are to be learned from Egypt’s experience. While the Iranian government is heaping praise on the demonstrators in Egypt, they have announced that a planned demonstration in Tehran will not be permitted.

The emirates’ leaders are worried but their situation is less than critical. Being small and wealthy, they have generally shared some of the wealth. Enough? Maybe. Each has large numbers of foreign workers who do not share in much of that wealth and not all are treated well. They could bring a bit of instability but it is unlikely to be sufficient. There may be an increase in the turnover of these workers. Abu Dhabi appears to be the most vulnerable of this little coterie – less wealth and more foreign workers.

That covers the most immediate players but further afield are Uzbekistan and others of that stripe that will have need to be concerned. Even China is sufficiently concerned to restrict news of what has been happening in Egypt. What does get through is credited to ruffians, troublemakers and anyone else they consider to be unsavory.

There will be instability. There will be changes. There will be regimes that survive. The interests of the US may not always benefit. Then again, that’s not what all of this is about. For our government to not get out in front would be a mistake. We need to use a great deal of precision with some regimes. Their leaders have been sucking on our teats for a long time. All will be wary. Some will need to be let down softly, not in consideration of their feelings, they have none, but to limit unwanted, unexpected ramifications.

It is a high wire act, fraught with known and unknown perils. I don’t expect our government to handle this perfectly. After all, our intelligence, once again, was caught off guard.